2026.4.21
The world is currently in the midst of regional wars with far reaching global implications. As a result, the entire world including Japan, will be redefining its national interests within a different paradigm than before. Thus, we are witnessing the birth of New Middle East.
Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Middle East has lacked a hegemonic power. Instead, we have seen divergent powers; long-established Egypt, Resurrection of Turkyie, Historical Iran, Religious /Financial Saudi Arabia, and the unorthodox Israel, each vying for power. In the past, external forces such as Britain and France, more recently the US and Russia, and lately China, have been interfering in these power equations. Such character of this region may stay the same, but the power balance among them, hence the global balance, will inevitably change after this Iran War.
Let’s consider the factors that could lead to this paradigm shift.
Firstly, on military aspect. For the Gulf states, which still maintain monarchies, the US military umbrella was the most reliable defense against the spread of the Iranian Revolution. They have widely accepted US forces, such as the Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, the Sultan Air Base in Saudia, and the Air Force Central Command in Qatar, and using these as deterrent against Iran and other threats. However, this proved vastly inadequate, and the large-scale attacks from Iran revealed the reality that hosting US forces actually undermined their security. The use of many interceptor missiles not for the Gulf states’ benefit, but as a vanguard for Israeli defense, was a disappointing reality. Kissinger was once quoted, “Enemy of US is dangerous, but friend of US is fatal,” This became a reality. Furthermore, Iran and others would finally realize that if they possess nuclear weapons, they may well not be attacked. This in turn would give a moral boost to North Korea in East Asian context. Regretfully nobody is willing to deal with the stark contrast between Iran and North Korea. Consequently, trust in the US has been eroded, and the military alliance with the US loses a lot of credibility, which is most worrisome to Japan. The question is, who will fill that void in the Middle East? What is clear is that Israel has emerged as a massive military power. Considering its nuclear arsenal, advanced military technology, and ties with the US, its presence has become increasingly prominent.
Secondly, regarding the economic impact, the apparent closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure threatened to disrupt more than 20% of the world’s energy supply and more than 30% of fertilizer production (more than 50% of sulfur supply), leading to soaring prices of crude oil/ natural gas and to a global disruption to logistics/ supply chains. This disruption has had a long-lasting impact, putting widespread downward pressure on the global economy through factors such as rising inflation and aviation fuel costs, and slowing economic growth. The impact on the Japanese economy, which heavily depends on the Gulf region for energy, is particularly unsettling. The war has reaffirmed to Iranians the value of the strait as strategic weapon just like China using rare metal. This would have a reverberating effect on Malacca Strait and other choke points. Securing safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and diversifying supply chains are the key challenges for the future.
Thirdly, regarding the impact on culture and lifestyle, the position of the UAE, especially Dubai, is particularly noteworthy. In this geopolitically unstable region, Dubai, although lacking a social foundation, provided a safe haven both tax-wise and culturally, creating a hub for the world’s wealthy. This so-called Dubai myth has finally collapsed. Emirates, which had thrived as a global international passenger hub, saw its home airports deserted. The freezing of real estate investments and the cancellation of projects have negatively impacted tourism, real estate, and finance—all of Dubai’s key drivers—revealing that its rise was ultimately a mirage. This applies not only to Dubai but also to the entire UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and other counties. With the “myth of safety” compromised, future path to restore business confidence would be an arduous task. As a result, Istanbul’s importance in the Islamic world will increase even further, both in terms of capital influx and its role as a cultural hub.
Fourthly, on international politics, US influence will decline. No one would likely consider the US as a trustworthy partner any longer. For instance, the Kurds ultimately failed to rise up within Iran. Certainly, for any country it would be difficult to confront by itself to the economic and military might of US. However, few countries will follow US initiatives, if not under coercion. For example, expanding the Abrahim Accords would appear exceedingly difficult. Having said this, the Gulf States would likely to hedge their security with other nations or means. Saudi Arabia’s security arrangement with Pakistan counting on its nuclear umbrella could be a harbinger of such sentiment. We will see how the Gulf states would keep US military presence in future. Saudi’s next steps are worth watching.
For the past half-century, the US has militarily intervened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Iran—countries surrounding the two superpowers of Eurasia, China and Russia—in an attempt to shift them toward pro-American nations. However, this only resulted in increased anti-American sentiment in the region. It is inevitable, therefore, that both superpowers China and Russia would further filter through this region. Latest example is China’s mediation efforts this time.
(It may well help push the Belt and Road Initiative as well. While China and Russia’s role in this War looks limited, this doesn’t hamper their closer ties with Middle East.)
Furthermore, the Gulf states will forever remain neighbors of Iran. At present they would openly pronounce Iran as a security threat but in the long run, they have to learn how to live side by side with Iran.
Israel’s rise poses a potential threat. Its anti-Turkiye sentiment is already visible, and the escalating friction, particularly in Syria, should be a worrisome factor. Despite its rise in power, Israel remains more dependent on US good will that Netanyahu begins to lose among Americans at large.
Finally, there are implications in terms of international law and international solidarity. We have heard a lot of criticism that the West has applied double standards to many issues. Now, it turns out the United States doesn’t even have a single standard. Furthermore, the UN Security Council, which is supposed to uphold justice in the international community, is pathetically dysfunctional. Even NATO, a prime example of collective security, is cast doubt on by the United States. The fundamental question has emerged of how justice will be served under the US president who said, “I don’t need International law” and “Only ethics can stop me,”. If China were to invade Taiwan, which it claims domestic issue, what right does US have to say while attacking Iran in violation of international law. In this void, China, which is normally indifferent to justice and freedom, is acting as if it were the champion of free trade and the guardian of the Security Council.
Against this backdrop, how should Middle Powers such as Japan respond?
Canadian Prime Minister Carney’s speech in Davos was spot-on. The increasing importance of unity among Middle Powers is undeniable. The cooperation among like-minded nations on specific agenda would be supplementary to the existing alliances . However, will it be effective? Do they have power/leverage to uphold justice? / Orbit around China has already begun in Southeast Asia. The Philippines, which is in conflict with China over territorial waters, has proposed joint oil drilling with China. Currently, this trend seems likely to accelerate.
Turkiye is fortunate to be part of the NATO, and is expanding its options to Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Due to geographical distance, there is a limit Japan could do politically together. Even less so militarily. However, maintaining the free trade system is in the national interest of both countries, and there is a good room for cooperation in this field. We must complete current negotiation of FTA/EPA first. Furthermore, there is a great potential for cooperation in the reconstruction of war-stricken region as well as the development of the military industries in the future.
Last but not least, both Japan and Turkyie are the good players at international arena such as the UN. We should strive together for truly functional United Nations.