What a world to live in !!

• The world is undergoing momentous change. It is a turning point of history;
• Basic norm after WWII, rule-based order has been challenged and being replaced by power-based order.

Freedom of speech, human right, democracy, rule of law, free trade have been the aim of domestic and international governance worldwide, and embodied in UN Charter as well as Breton Woods institutions. Such a system has ensured postwar prosperity and growth, most of which has been realized, until a few decades ago, by the western developed nations and attracted all other nations of the world and they have been gravitated towards the West.

• But true sense of realization of such values is attainable only by Western nations having undergone enlightenment and feudalism in their histories, defining clear boundaries of individuals’ rights and responsibilities. Nonetheless they have constructed the post WWII systems based on these values worldwide. UN in particular.
• However, important contradictions within such a system have been for long concealed and oppressed. From time to time, they surfaced. People call it ‘double standard’. Some examples are;

one state one vote vs veto power in the Security Council, freedom of speech vs surveillance society, rule of law vs rule by law, free election vs con election.

Western Europe is too advanced in terms of such values

• These contradictions have been magnified through free flow of goods, money, people as well as information particularly with recent IT revolution which brings transparency to all events and enables people of all walks of life to participate in these events.
• This rule-based order is now undergoing through gigantic transformation into traditional power-based order.

Of course, for a foreseeable future, rule-based and power-based order are juxtaposed.

Trump 2.0 certainly works as catalyst for change. But many transformations have been made in the past several decades to facilitate such a change in the world governance;

1. China’s rise; most salient change has been the rise of this ancient power. Since the end of 1970s, China has registered 10% economic growth and still grows at around 5%. China’s GDP accounts for 18% of the world, manufacturing power of 27% making China world factory. And it is the largest exporter of the world. China’s military power has steadily grown to be world No3 according to Global Firepower 2023 with all ranges of sophisticated weapon systems. China challenges the western democracy particularly to freedom of speech, claiming its style of surveillance society as more democratic because the state could ensure stability. China’s diplomacy has been increasingly assertive and combative to be called wolf warrior diplomacy.

China’s rise brought about significant changes in the international institutions; more assertive use of veto power in the UN SC, large contributor in UNESCO, WHO and others, creating its own frameworks such as RBI, SCO, BRICS. More influences in the Middle East, Ukraine issues.

• On the other hand, G7 power has been declining steadily. At the beginning of this century G7 GDP accounted for 61%, and was reduced to 44% in 2023. Cohesiveness of G7 has been gradually weakened over past years. France and Germany are struggling their internal politics, Japan, UK, Canada have seen changes of governments due to frustrating population about immigration, inflation, economic mismanagements. But above all the Trump 2.0 has introduced significant and fundamental changes in the working of international affairs.
• In parallel, Global South has been growing rapidly, with Asian nations at its center, and projected to surpass US and China combined GDP by 2050. Their population would account for almost 70% of the world by that time.
• While economic maps are essential to illustrate the historic changes underway now, beneath them, human related cultural problems, I would say root causes, have become conspicuous in western countries in such forms as refugee influx, immigration, ethnicity, religions, tolerance, freedom and sovereignty. Major European nations have had overseas colonies over centuries and historically accepted immigrants from them. However, in this century, as globalization proceeds, people began to migrate not only because of oppression, discrimination, tyranny, war, internal fighting, but seeking better jobs and life. The wave of immigration to Europe in 2016 is the case in point. Equally not only Latin Americans but even Chinese and Sub Continent immigrants are recently swarming into the US. Trump 2.0 has reacted to take tougher measures. This, according to Democrats, sent wrong message of inhumane treatment that in turn would damage the US international credibility. In globalized world it is one thing to allow free flow of goods, services, and information. But it is quite another to allow free flow of people as they carry with them indigenous culture which might not fit into the receiving societies and cause frictions.
• These cultural problems are the largest impediments in the globalized era. Anti-immigration would breed intolerance, and reverberate back to the immigrants. The advance of extreme right parties in Europe as well as Trump 2.0 demonstrates growing frustration among receiving nations. All sorts of social issues would emanate from this too; gun control, drug problems, social welfare, medical system, housing and ghetto problems etc. Consequently, democratic values the west has upheld so far are now cast in doubt, inviting double standard criticism.
•  As tech revolution goes on, income disparity has widened to an unprecedented level to produce relative-poor who could not catch up and become a loser. This is particularly true in the US, hence it produced Trump 2.0. Since these people are middle class (white), their sentiment would paint the psyche of the whole nation, and America First is borne. Exceptionalism due to ‘Manifest Destiny’ would exacerbate this MAGA movement. Its ‘go alone’ policy may stem partly from Trump’s bloated ego. But relative decline of economic well-being of this middle class has driven them to reject international cooperation. Withdrawal from UNESCO, WHO, reluctance to engage in NATO, WTO, or even UN as well as the shut-down of USAID are the testimony of such unilateralism. This is not least damaging enormously to the leadership quality of the US but also to the post-war internationalism.
• The other side of the coin is the reluctance to address squarely to ever pressing global problems such as climate change, global pandemics. The withdrawal of a major player, US, from world organs would erode what has been so far accomplished in these respective areas and halt progress of vital importance to humanity. The resources on the planet earth are not enough for the ever-expanding population of humankind. So, we must act in coordination and cooperation.
• Tech revolution is now elevating to yet another stage with AI available near at hand. Warfare is completely changing its style bringing about ethical problems. Cyber space is the real battlefield. Our life is increasingly controlled and manipulated by technology. CCTV everywhere provide a useful tool to control population by the state.

• To deal with these issues, Trump administration demonstrates no principles but is rather employing arm-twisting tools, be it to friends or foes. His false claims based on fake facts have bewildered people all over the world. Thus, US credibility has significantly been eroded. If NATO is not rock solid under US deterrence, how solid is the alliance with other nations including Japan?
• Policy choice for medium size nations is twofold; Strengthening own capabilities and making more like-minded friends everywhere.

• Focusing its own power has been the most rudimentary of all in human history. But in post war era, internationalism and cooperation have become a norm so that many nations began to rely too heavily on others for defense and business, or own survival : NATO, BRICS, IMF, US-JP. Now back to square 1, every nation must work to secure the safety net of its own in case all these collaboration efforts would fail. This is particularly true for nations in between super powers, be it Turkey or Japan. Economic and military resilience should be the national goal.

• Yet in the world there are a number of like-minded countries, it is increasingly needed to strengthen ties among such nations. It would be useful if a nation could have multi-layered cooperative association with different groups/ countries depending on subject matter. After a debacle in the Oval Office, Zelensky quickly moved to repair US relationship thanks to the help from UK and France. Japan could count on more than a moral support from Quad in case Taiwan issue flares up. If many nations unite in one voice, Trump may oblige to listen. Sycophant would not work in a long run.